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Math for Donkeys

I think it was the Electoral Map that turned me on to, and it is that has this quality post.

Post Pennsylvania, he (she?) breaks down the remaining primary contests and explains what might or might not happen.  More specifically, he explains what needs to happen for Clinton to win.  He shows a few different ways to run the numbers – delegates won, popular votes, with caucuses, etc., and shows how they play out depending on the outcome of the remaining primaries.

The poll/math/stat geeks will love the whole article, but those of you seeking the bottom line should scroll to the graph at the bottom: For Clinton to get an even chance of winning the nomination, she needs to improve her polling numbers in the remaining states by an average of 13 percentage points over her current standings.  For her to lock it in, she needs 40 points improvement!

What about Florida and Michigan, you say?

Michigan and Florida are now completely irrelevant from the standpoint of the pledged delegate count. Obama will lead the pledged delegate count even with the entire Michigan and Florida delegations seated — unless Clinton improves her current poll standing by at least 23.3 points.

The race is over.  The only question is how long it will take Hillary to concede.


Pingback from Dan Dunn’s Podium » Boarding the Sinking Ship
Time: May 21, 2008, 6:41 pm

[…] this gem: “We encourage you to . . . wait until the Democratic nominee is clear.”  The Democratic nominee is clear.  I know that Hillary is still campaigning, but she doesn’t get to say when the race is […]